Business Blog

Nokia shares fall after sales drop

Nokia LumiaLumia smartphones have been the only bright spot in Nokia's latest earnings

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Shares of Nokia have fallen 13% after higher sales of its Lumia smartphones failed to offset a decline in its mobile phone unit in the first quarter.

In its earnings report, the Finnish firm said sales of Lumia handsets rose 27% in the first quarter of 2013, but that total sales of mobile phones fell 30% to 1.59bn euros.

Revenue fell 20% to 5.85bn euros, down from 7.35bn euros a year earlier.

Nokia is trying to catch up with rival smartphone makers Apple and Samsung.

The company reported a 339m-euro (£290m) loss in the January-March period, down from a loss of 1.57bn euros last year.

In the first quarter of this year, Nokia shipped 55.8 million handsets. It sold a total of 11.1 million smartphones including 5.6 million Lumia phones, 500,000 Symbian units and five million units of its entry-level Asha phones, which fell 46%.

"The shortfall is in the cheaper mobile phone side, where both volumes and average selling prices came lower than expected. That is of course a bit worrying, since that has been their bread and butter business in the Devices and Services unit," said Hakan Wranne, analyst at Swedbank.

"I think we will see the market's profit estimates for 2014 come down," he added.

The only bright spot in the report was Nokia's Lumia smartphone range, for which the company expects to see more demand in coming quarters.

The Lumia uses Microsoft Windows software, after Nokia abandoned its own operating system two years ago.

"Six million Lumias is quite promising," said Francisco Jeronimo, research manager at IDC, a tech research firm.

"They are on a right track and we can see a much better year for Nokia smartphones. They are far from volumes of Samsung and Apple, but that is not where Nokia is trying to compete now. Nokia is trying to go for the mass market.

"They are trying to compete on the segment where consumers are moving from feature phones to smartphones, but they want cheap smartphones."

In other areas of the company, its telecoms equipment venture, Nokia Siemens Networks, reported a fall in sales.

"We have areas where we are making progress and areas where we are further increasing the focus," said Nokia chief executive Stephen Elop, who was hired in 2010 to revive the company.

"For example, people are responding positively to the Lumia portfolio and our volumes are increasing quarter over quarter.

"On the other hand, our mobile phones business faces a difficult competitive environment, and we are taking tactical actions and bringing new innovation to market to address our challenges," he added.

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Statoil finds new oil in North Sea

Oil rig in the North SeaStatoil has found a large new oil deposit in the North Sea

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Norwegian energy giant Statoil has said it has found "significant" new oil resources in the North Sea.

The company estimates the discovery could yield between 40 and 150 million barrels of oil.

The find is in the Gullfaks oil field, which has been in production since the 1980s.

Norway has been looking for more oil deposits in the North Sea and has stepped up exploration in the Arctic.

Oeystein Michelsen, executive vice president for Statoil's development and production in Norway, called the discovery "a result of Statoil's strategy for revitalisation of the Norwegian continental shelf.''

Norway is the largest oil producer in Western Europe, pumping about three million barrels of oil a day, according to the country's Ministry of Petroleum and Energy.

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Doubt cast on pro-austerity research

Anti-austerity demonstration in Greece 13 March 2013The new research suggests that austerity measures may not have been necessary

Doubts have been cast on research that has been crucial in supporting governments' austerity programmes.

Two Harvard economists found in 2010 that a country's output falls substantially as soon as its total public debt passes 90% of its annual output or gross domestic product (GDP).

But two other economists say they have found errors in the work which means the relationship "evaporates entirely".

The original researchers admitted mistakes but say their message stands.

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, the economists behind the original research, said in a statement: "It is sobering that such an error slipped into one of our papers despite our best efforts to be consistently careful," but they added that the "central message" of their research was still valid.

The new study by Robert Polin, Michael Ash and Thomas Herndon from University of Massachusetts, which was made public this week, found coding errors in spreadsheets used in the 2010 study, which they said meant that growth did not fall as fast as was claimed when debt passed 90% of a country's gross domestic product (GDP).

Robert Polin told the BBC that between 2000 and 2010, the average rate of growth in countries with debt above 90% of GDP had actually been higher than it had been in countries with lower debt to GDP ratios.

"So their relationship, which they're saying is so fundamental for understanding policy - the relationship evaporates entirely," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

Policy influence

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff's paper Growth in a time of debt looked at 20 advanced economies since 1945 and found that GDP growth had been between 3% and 4% when debt had been below 90% of GDP, but that the average had collapsed to -0.1% when debt had risen above 90%.

The new research says that growth only falls to an average of 2.2% when debt passes 90%.

The result is important because governments were encouraged by the original paper to take drastic steps. such as severe austerity measures, to avoid borrowing any more money once their borrowing reached 90% of annual output.

The authors of the new research argue that governments might have been better off borrowing more money to spend on trying to encourage economic growth and reduce the severity of the recessions their countries were facing.

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Japan in record annual trade deficit

Yen and US dollar notesRecent aggressive stimulus moves by the Japanese policymakers have weakened the yen

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Japan, the world's third-largest economy, has reported a record trade deficit for the year to 31 March.

The deficit hit 8.17tn yen ($83.4bn; £54.5bn) as a slump in global demand hurt exports, while greater domestic consumption of fuel boosted imports.

A weak yen, which has dipped nearly 20% against the US dollar since November, also boosted the value of the imports.

Analysts said the deficit was likely to shrink in the coming months as the weaker yen will help Japan's exports.

The yen has dipped after policymakers introduced aggressive measures aimed at spurring a fresh wave of economic growth and stoking domestic demand.

Trade shift

Japan, which has traditionally been known for its exports, has seen a shift in its trade pattern in recent times.

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The broad picture remains intact as the weaker yen is having more of an impact on boosting imports than exports”

End Quote Takeshi Minami Norinchukin Research Institute

It has seen its imports rise, driven mainly by an increased demand for fuel.

This was after most of its nuclear reactors were shut after the earthquake and tsunami in 2011 which damaged the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant and resulted in radiation leaks.

As a result, utility providers have had to turn to traditional thermal power stations to generate electricity.

These power plants need natural gas and coal to operate, resulting in a surge in imports of these commodities.

Meanwhile, its exports have been hurt by a slump in demand from key markets such as the US and Europe, while a territorial dispute has hurt sales to China.

That has seen it report a deficit for nine straight months.

Delayed impact

Policymakers have been hoping that their recent measures, which have weakened the currency, will help the country's exporters.

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A weak currency makes Japanese exports more affordable to foreign buyers and also boosts profits of exporters.

However, analysts said that while a weakening currency has an immediate impact on the value of imports, it takes longer for it to help exports.

At the same time, exports are also influenced by global demand, which analysts said had remained subdued.

"The broad picture remains intact as the weaker yen is having more of an impact on boosting imports than exports, while the recovery in the world economy, particularly China, is tepid," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute in Tokyo.

"We'll need to wait at least until around summer before the weaker yen enhances price competitiveness of Japanese products abroad to boost exports."

There were some signs of recovery in the data for March, which showed a 1.1% increase in exports during the month, from a year earlier.

That was better than the 0.4% gain that many analysts had forecast.

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Fed says US economy slightly better

Workers at a General Motors factory in MichiganThe Fed highlighted the carmaking industry

The US central bank has slightly upgraded its view of the US economy, saying it expanded at a "moderate pace" in recent months.

The view comes in the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book report, which covers the period from late February to early April.

The Fed highlighted growth in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

In its previous beige book report in January, the Fed said growth was only "modest to moderate".

In its latest report, the Fed also said that carmakers were performing strongly.

Yet it cautioned that consumer spending was only increasing at a "modest" pace.

The most recent official figures showed that the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Meanwhile, official data from the Commerce Department showed that retail sales fell in March, down 0.4% from February.

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UK unemployment up to 2.56 million

Woman walks past job centreThe number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance fell in March

UK unemployment rose by 70,000 to 2.56 million between December and February, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said.

It pushed the unemployment rate to 7.9%, raising further questions about the UK's economic strength.

The number of people in employment also fell, while earnings growth slowed considerably, according to ONS data.

But there was positive news on the number claiming Jobseeker's Allowance last month, down 7,000 to 1.53 million.

'Challenges ahead'

The number of people in work fell by 2,000 in the latest quarter to February, to just under 30 million, the first time the figure has dipped since autumn 2011.

And the ONS said that average regular pay, excluding bonuses, rose by 1%, the lowest since records began more than a decade ago.

The news hit sterling, with the pound falling more than a cent against the dollar on concerns that a weaker labour market pointed to worsening economic prospects.

It was up against the euro as the equity markets in London closed, having reversed earlier losses.

Employment Minister Mark Hoban acknowledged that there were "still tough challenges ahead", but highlighted the importance of the fall in the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance (JA), and especially the drop among young people.

Analysis

So is the labour market moving into a weaker phase?

It's understandable that the question is being asked after the second successive monthly report of higher unemployment and a significant 70,000 increase.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has already forecast a slight rise in the jobless rate by next year. The employment figures suggest a levelling off in job creation after a strong run of expansion last year.

But there were more people looking for work following a fall in the number of economically inactive (those who have left the workforce) and this can be seen as a positive sign.

Those in work are still taking their share of the pain - the 1% increase in average regular pay (excluding bonuses) was the lowest since records began more than a decade ago. So with inflation unchanged at 2.8%, the squeeze on households continues.

"We will continue to give jobseekers all the help and support they need to realise their aspirations," he said.

Ministers said the number of JA claimants fell in every region of England, Wales and Scotland, while the number of new claims was at its lowest level for more than four years.

The number of young people claiming JA is down by 2,800 on the month, and is 65,400 lower than last year.

However, the ONS data also revealed that 900,000 people have been out of work for more than a year, an 8,000 increase on the three months to November, while the number of unemployed 16 to 24-year-olds rose by 20,000 to 979,000.

Despite the increase in unemployment, the total is 71,000 lower than a year ago. There has been a 62,000 fall in the number of people in part-time jobs, to just over eight million, with a 60,000 increase in full-time employment, to 21.6 million.

Labour called on Chancellor George Osborne to heed Tuesday's suggestion from the International Monetary Fund that the UK ease its austerity plans.

Liam Byrne MP, Labour's shadow work and pensions secretary, said: "Three years on it's now as clear the government's plan is failing, and failing badly. Not only are more people unemployed than at the election, it's soaring up.

"With the IMF warning George Osborne to change course and unemployment getting worse, it's clear the time has come for a fresh approach."

'Needless waste'

Alan Clarke, economist at Scotiabank, said: "It's not a disaster, but a lot of the froth and really good news we had over the last year on jobs is becoming exhausted, which shouldn't be a surprise when there is not much growth around."

George Buckley, at Deutsche Bank, said the data told two stories about the jobs market.

"On the claims numbers they were obviously quite positive in the sense that the last month's number got revised to an even bigger fall and we saw another fall this month.

"But on the negative side, first of all employment, which is down, the expectation was that it would rise slightly, we saw the unemployment rate go up and we've also seen very weak average earnings growth, much weaker than expected," he said.

GMB union general secretary Paul Kenny said: "The chancellor should heed IMF advice to change course to grow the economy to end this needless waste of human talent."

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The Prince's Trust highlighted the particular impact of youth unemployment, which chief executive Martina Milburn said "is still dangerously close to a million".

She said: "Thousands of these young people are long-term unemployed, often facing further challenges such as poverty and homelessness. We must act now to support these young people into work and give them the chance of a better future."

Also on Wednesday, the Bank of England released minutes of its last interest rate meeting, which showed that policymakers remain divided over whether the UK economy needs more stimulus via its quantitative easing asset purchase programme.

Economists believe it is a close call whether first quarter growth data, due to be published next week, will show the economy sliding back into recession.

They said the fragile labour market underlined the continuing weakness of economy, and there was particular concern about the ONS' pay data.

That pushed the euro to 86.37 pence against the pound, its highest since 15 March. Sterling also fell 0.6% against the dollar.

"It's the earnings data that has done the damage. Combined with CPI (inflation) data yesterday it shows the brutal squeeze on real incomes is ongoing," said Adam Cole, global head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

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